The Gophers are currently 9-4-1, and while they started the season as the nation's #1 ranked team and odds-on favorite to win the National Championship, they have currently fallen to #8 in the latest USCHO Poll and more importantly currently sit at #11 in the Pairwise standings.
What did I learn in comparing what this season's Gopher team has done compared to successful Gopher teams of the recent past? While the Gopher's haven't been horrible, I think they have a lot of work to do if they want this season to end the way we all hope. In my eyes, this Gopher team hasn't been playing "Gopher Hockey" thus far, and they won't get far in the post-season if they don't turn things around.
A few things really stood out to me when I compared the numbers for this season side-by-side with the numbers from some of the more recent Gopher Hockey seasons.
- Gophers aren't controlling the puck the way they usually do
- Gophers aren't scoring nearly enough 5-on-5
- Gophers are more dependent on getting early momentum to get wins
I know that none of these points probably jumps out at you as being all that surprising, but when you take a look at the numbers side-by-side with other seasons, it becomes crystal clear that these issues are real. Let's take a look at each of these points individually, then we can discuss what the Gophers need to do to turn things around in the second half.
Controlling the Puck
One thing that has really jumped out at me this season is the absence of what has become a Gopher Hockey staple. That's puck control. The Gophers under Don Lucia have been at their best when they are controlling the puck and not letting other team's have it. Sounds like a pretty common sense approach for any team to have success, but the Gophers have been one of the best in college hockey in recent season's at controlling the puck.
Yet, so far this season we haven't really seen the type of puck control play that Gopher fans have become accustomed to. Teams are enjoying more offensive zone time against the Gophers, and the Gophers have at times struggled to break out of their zone and maintain offensive zone time of their own.
While there isn't currently stat tracking for shot attempts and blocked shots (that I know of), so I can't compute the Corsi and Fenwick numbers, I did take a look at shots for and against and the shot margin of this season's team and compared it to other recent seasons. Take a look below.
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| Gopher Hockey goals and shots differentials for the last 5 seasons |
GPG = Goals Per Game
GAPG = Goals Against Per Game
GM = Goals Margin
SPG = Shots Per Game
SAPG = Shots Against Per Game
SM = Shots Margin
As you can see in the chart above, the Gophers haven't been too far off their traditional pace in terms of Goal differential. They are currently scoring 3.43 goals per game while allowing 2.14 goals per game, which comes out to a 1.29 goals per game margin over their opponents.
This is right in line with their average over their last 3 seasons (in which they have won 3 Conference Championships and made 2 Frozen Fours). Between the 2011-12 and 2013-14 seasons, they have averaged 3.52 gpg and 2.13 gapg for a scoring margin of 1.39 goals. They are a bit down in scoring, but their scoring margin thus far hasn't been too concerning. But that can be a bit deceiving, as we will see in a moment.
The big concern for me is that the Gophers aren't averaging as many shots on goal as they have in recent seasons. A lot of people will tell you that shots on goal are irrelevant compared to scoring, but they can be a really strong indicator of how much a team possesses the puck (not as much as Corsi or Fenwick, but without attempted shots and blocked shots, I can't compute those). And if you possess the puck more than your opponent, you will likely have more chances to score than you opponent.
The Gophers have averaged 29.4 shots on goal per game and have given up and average of 28.8 shots per game so far this season. The number of shots allowed per game is about 5 more than they allowed in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons, but roughly in line with what they gave up last season (in which they surrendered an average of 29.4 shots per game).
Those extra 4 shots per game weren't as noticeable last season partly because Adam Wilcox was playing some lights out hockey in net, but also because the Gophers were themselves averaging the roughly 35 shots per game last season that they averaged in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 season. So far this year, they are averaging roughly 5 shots less on goal per game than they have in the past 3 seasons.
So, if you take away 5 shots on goal per game and then give your opponents an additional 5 shots on goal per game, that is a swing of 10 shots per game. You can see by the shot margin in the chart above that the Gopher's shot differential was roughly 10 shots in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 season, but has fallen to virtually even so far this year.
That means the Gophers aren't possessing the puck nearly as much as they have been in recent seasons, and a lot of that has to do with the way the team has been playing 5-on-5. The Gophers are currently 8-0-0 when out-shooting their opponents, but only 1-4-1 when getting out-shot. All four of their losses have come in games where they were out shot. And in my opinion they are lucky it hasn't hurt them more. While it hasn't burnt them in terms of scoring differential as of yet, like I said before, that can and probably will change soon if they don't start playing better hockey 5-on-5.
Scoring 5-on-5
So, if the Gophers are enjoying a scoring differential that is somewhat similar to what they have had in recent, successful seasons, why should you be concerned about their scoring? The answer is that the Gophers have been relying far too much on a power play that is humming along at a ridiculous 34% success rate. They haven't been scoring nearly enough goals 5-on-5 and if that power play rate comes back down to Earth some (and odds are it will), then that Goal Differential that we discussed above will come crashing down with it. Don't believe me? Take a look at the chart below.
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| The 2014-15 Gopher Hockey Power Play Dependency |
PP = Power Play Percentage
PK = Penalty Kill Percentage
TOTG = Total Goals Scored
PPG = Power Play Goals Scored
5x5G = 5x5 Goals Scored
%PPG = Percentage of Total Goals Scored on Power Play
As you can see in the chart above, odds are that the Gopher's power play will not sustain the 34% conversion rate that they have enjoyed so far this season. The power play has been terrific, and they have a great chance of eclipsing the 24.6% rate that they enjoyed a few years ago, but odds are we will see their power play rate dip down some.
That is concerning because so far this season the Gopher's have relied on their power play to score goals far more than they have in recent seasons. The Gophers have scored a total of 48 goals so far this season. 17 of those goals have come on the power play and 31 have come while playing 5-on-5 hockey. That means 35.4% of the goals they have scored this season have come with a man advantage.
Again, it's great that their power play is humming at the ridiculous rate that it is, but if you look at past seasons you can see that power play goals have traditionally accounted for roughly 28-29% of the team's goals. Another strong indication that the power play likely won't be able to sustain the level it has been at, and the Gopher's scoring differential is going to come crashing down to Earth if they don't find a way to put the puck in the net 5-on-5.
Too Dependent on Early Momentum to Win
The final thing that really jumped out at me when I was comparing the stats for this season with recent seasons is just how dependent this Gopher Hockey team is on early momentum to win hockey games. While it's always great to jump out to an early lead, over the course of a season you are going to fall behind early in some games (either because you get a bad bounce, run into a hot opponent, etc..). A team needs to be able to dig deep, stick to their style of play, and dig themselves out of early deficits when they occur.
While it is rare to be able to win more games when you fall behind early than when you grab an early lead, this season's Gopher Hockey team appears to be more dependent upon early momentum than Gopher teams of recent seasons, as shown in the chart below.
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| Gophers have been especially dependent on early momentum this season |
As you can see in the chart above, the Gophers are 8-1-0 (0.889) when they score the first goal, but only 1-3-1 (0.300) when their opponent scores first. So far this season, they have only won 1 game that they fell behind early. While it's still early in the season, they are likely to fall behind again this season and they need to find a way to keep their composure, stick to their system, and find a way to come back.
Last season the Gophers actually had a winning record (10-6-1) in games where they surrendered the first goal. As I said, this is rare and doesn't need to be matched by this year's Gopher squad, but they need to be much better than they have been at dealing with adversity and falling behind early.
You're going to surrender early leads in hockey, but good teams find a way to keep composed and come back in those games. That falls on the on-ice leadership in my opinion, and the Gophers have some strong leaders on their squad. Time for those guys to step up and show the way.
What the Gophers Need to Do Better
This list is a lot longer than I expected it to be at this time of the season, and I am not going to dive deep into everything at this point, but I do have a short list of things the Gophers absolutely must improve for them to have the sort of success the team and the fans expected this season.
First off, they need to start possessing the puck more. That means getting the puck out of their zone more efficiently and sustaining a fore check more often. Far too often this season the Gophers have gotten hemmed up in their own end as the result of an opponent's aggressive fore check. While we do have some youth on the back end, we have enough talent and experience back their where this is absolutely unacceptable. Our defensemen must be better at moving the puck out of our zone and up the ice.
We also need our forwards to take some pressure off our defensemen and do a better job of gaining the offensive zone and sustaining a fore check. If you are going to dump the puck in the zone, you better go in and get it. Teams have been able to move the puck out of their defensive zone far too easily on us at times and that absolutely must change.
In my eyes, that means that our 3rd and 4th lines must be a lot better. While some of these guys haven't played a ton in the past few years, or are in their first year or two of college hockey, they have had enough experience this season where we need to start seeing some improvement. If they continue to play at the possession disparity that they have been, I don't see any options for the coaching staff other than to shorten their bench a little.
The final thing I want to touch on is for the most part out of the Gophers control, but they must find a way to stay healthy from here on out. We don't have nearly the depth that I thought we would coming into this season as some guys just haven't taken the steps that I thought they would yet. If we lose some of our top line forwards for an extended period, we might be in serious trouble.
Anyways, that is my analysis of where the Gophers are at right now. Still plenty of hockey left to be played and plenty of opportunity for guys to take a step in their development. This team has more than enough talent to make a deep run in the post season, but in order to do that some guys are going to have to take a long look in the mirror and ask themselves if they are giving it everything they have. I can't imagine that guys came back this year to have the type of season they have been having.
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