The latest Minnesota Hockey Recruiting Fallacy

It isn't unusual to see some posturing when it comes to college hockey recruiting.  And with 204 Minnesota-born players playing Division 1 hockey this season, it's easy to see why Minnesota is usually at the epicenter of many of these discussions.


I don't think I would be surprising many, if any, of the long-time Minnesota hockey fans if I told you that the current landscape of Minnesota High School hockey is changing.  Strike that, has been changing for some time.


Nowdays more-and-more players are choosing to forgo the end of their high school hockey careers to further their development playing in junior leagues such as the USHL, BCHL, etc... while others are choosing to play at prestigious prep schools such as Shattuck St. Mary's.


Minnesota High School Hockey still has it's place in the Minnesota Hockey world.  It is still the best high school hockey league (by miles and miles) in the United States.  And it is still one of the few high school hockey leagues in the country that is capable of providing a level of competition strong enough to produce NHL quality players.


That said, Minnesota High School Hockey is transitioning and becoming a younger players league.  We're seeing more-and-more high end young players break into the varsity rosters of some of the state's strongest high school hockey programs.  Joey and Mike Anderson, who have played for Hill Murray as 8th and 9th graders in the past, and Casey Mittlestadt of Eden Prairie this season are but a few of the many recent examples.  The reason they are able to is that more-and-more of the high-end upperclassmen are moving on to other leagues before their high school days are done.


I don't want to delve too deeply into this topic, as it isn't the purpose of this rant, but the point is that Minnesota High School Hockey has been changing for quite some time.  Long gone are the days when the vast majority of the state's best hockey players hang around high school hockey long enough to be eligible to win the prestigious Minnesota Mr. Hockey Award, which is given out to the state's best high school hockey senior every year.


That brings me to this article written during last year's Minnesota High School Hockey tournament.


I've reached out to David McCoy on Twitter to have a discussion about this article of his, and I don't want to be too brash about this, but this article was horribly researched.


It's quite clear that David fails to understand the changes that Minnesota High School Hockey has undergone, and continues to undergo. 


For instance, David mentions, "The boy’s state hockey tournament starts Wednesday at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minn.  Every year, it’s the place to see many of Minnesota’s top players."


That is correct David, but why no mention of the fact that many, many, many more of Minnesota's "top players" at these age groups aren't playing Minnesota High School Hockey, but are playing hockey in junior leagues or elsewhere?


David goes on to ponder later in his article, "How can he [Dean Blais] get so many of these elite players out of Minnesota?"


Well David, let me ask you this.  The state of Minnesota produced 204 of this season's current Division 1 hockey players.  Considering the state of Minnesota only has 5 Division 1 college hockey programs (Minnesota, Minnesota-Duluth, St. Cloud State, Minnesota State, and Bemidji), who have under 30 players on their roster every season, how do you suggest we keep every Minnesota born player who wants to play college hockey inside the state of Minnesota?


Do great football players from Texas and Florida play outside those states?


College hockey programs only have so much room for players, and so many scholarships to hand out.  It always drives me nuts when I hear people remark about the players that "got away" from Minnesota.  Programs have to pick and choose which players they want to recruit and how much scholarship money they want to offer.  It's a balancing act.  Not just for the current season, but these decisions impact subsequent seasons down the line.


I'm not saying that the players he mentioned in his article aren't great hockey players.  They are all great hockey players.  And I am not saying that these players aren't worthy of playing for a school like Minnesota.  Minnesota produces MANY great players and MANY of those great players are more than worthy to play for a prestigious program like Minnesota.


If only the Gophers had room for them all, right?


It's the whole sense in the article that Minnesota is losing out on the top recruits in the state who are choosing to go elsewhere mentality of the article that really drives me nuts.  Let me put this into perspective for David and for others out there who still don't understand.


Of the 17 current non-goalie recruits that the Gophers have lined up, only 3 of the 17 are playing Minnesota High School hockey this season.  In fact, of those 17 recruits, 4 aren't even from the state of Minnesota.  Of the three who are currently playing Minnesota High School Hockey, only ONE is eligible to be even nominated for the Minnesota Mr. Hockey Award.  ONE.


What is the quality of Minnesota's recruits, you ask?  Here's a brief summary.


Ryan Lindgren-Defensemen (who is playing with the NTDP this season and has put up 1-5-6 in 16 games), Ryan Norman-Forward (who is playing for Shattuck St Mary's Prep team this season and has put up 17-26-43 in 34 games), Scott Reedy-Forward (who is playing with Shattuck St Mary's Prep team and has put up 18-19-37 in 34 games as a Sophomore), and Josh Maniscalco-Defensmen, who is from Pennsylvania (is playing for Shattuck St Mary's prep team this season and has put up 4-10-14 in 34 games as a Sophmore) all made Shattuck St Mary's Prep team as Sophomores.


You don't make Shattuck St. Mary's Prep program (the same program that has produced the likes of Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Toews, and Zach Parise) as a Sophomore if you aren't an elite talent.

Brannon McManus-Forward currently plays for Shattuck St. Mary's U16 team and has put up 29-23-52 in 36 games so far this season. He put up 68-52-120 in 65 games last season.

Tom Novak-Forward (6-21-27 in 27 games), Tyler Sheehy-Forward (11-18-29 in 27 games), Sam Rossini-Defensmen (0-2-2 in 16 games), and Rem Pitlick-Forward (6-4-10 in 27 games) all play for Waterloo in the USHL. Both Sheehy and Novak would have definitely been Mr. Hockey candidates last season had they stayed in Minnesota High School hockey. In fact, I think one of them would have won the award.  Rem Pitlick played at Shattuck St. Mary's before heading to the USHL.

Casey Mittlestadt-Forward is currently playing Minnesota High School Hockey with Eden Prairie as a freshman and has put up 16-14-30 in 16 games so far this season. Last season as a bantam he had 91 goals and was named the Bantam of the year in Minnesota. Of those 91 goals, 11 were game winners.

Jack Ramsey-Forward forwent his senior season at Minnetonka and has played the past few seasons in the BCHL with Penticton. He's put up 12-17-29 in 38 games this season.

Ryan Zuhlsdorf-Defensemen didn't finish his high school career at Edina and has instead decided to play for Sioux City in the USHL this season and has put up 2-11-13 in 29 games so far this year.

Then you have Tarek Baker-Forward (4-7-11 in 30 games) who plays with Des Moines and Bloomington in the USHL this season and Brent Gates Jr-Forward (10-18-28 in 30 games) with Green Bay in the USHL. Neither are from Minnesota. Baker is from Wisconsin and Gates is from Michigan.

Neither is William Fallstrom-Forward, who is from Sweden and is playing with Sweden's U17 team this season and has scored 7 goals in 10 games with them so far this year.

The only player of the Gopher's current recruits to be eligible to win (or even be nominated for) the Mr Hockey Award this season is Jack Sadek-Defensemen of Lakeville North, who has put up 2-11-13 in 16 games so far this season.


As for whether the best players Minnesota is producing are leaving the state to play elsewhere....

I don't have the time to go back and look at the stats for all 204 Division 1 college players from MN to see where things stand now, but as of mid December when I wrote This Article on the current demographics of college hockey, 4 of the Top 5 scorers from Minnesota were playing their college hockey inside Minnesota and 3 of those 4 were Gophers.


So, not sure if your article was written to stir the pot David, but if it was then congratulations because the good hockey fans of Minnesota have had this article thrown in our faces by many of the unknowledgeable hockey fans in the UNO fan base for months now.  Thanks for that.


If this was an honest attempt to cover the High School Tournament and the Mr. Hockey award, then I hope you will take the time to learn about the history of Minnesota High School Hockey and the changes it is undergoing before writing another article about how all of our top talent is leaving the state.


Because while you are right that an increasing number of our top players are leaving the state to play hockey, for many it is to play junior hockey in preparation to come back to this state to play college hockey.

Gophers Haven't Been Playing Gopher Hockey

Since we've reached the mid-point of the season and the Gopher's men's hockey team is in the midst of their holiday break, I thought I would take a moment to reflect on the season so far and compare what we have seen this season to what we have seen in recent Gopher Hockey season's.

The Gophers are currently 9-4-1, and while they started the season as the nation's #1 ranked team and odds-on favorite to win the National Championship, they have currently fallen to #8 in the latest USCHO Poll and more importantly currently sit at #11 in the Pairwise standings.

What did I learn in comparing what this season's Gopher team has done compared to successful Gopher teams of the recent past?  While the Gopher's haven't been horrible, I think they have a lot of work to do if they want this season to end the way we all hope.  In my eyes, this Gopher team hasn't been playing "Gopher Hockey" thus far, and they won't get far in the post-season if they don't turn things around.

A few things really stood out to me when I compared the numbers for this season side-by-side with the numbers from some of the more recent Gopher Hockey seasons.

• Gophers aren't controlling the puck the way they usually do
• Gophers aren't scoring nearly enough 5-on-5
• Gophers are more dependent on getting early momentum to get wins

I know that none of these points probably jumps out at you as being all that surprising, but when you take a look at the numbers side-by-side with other seasons, it becomes crystal clear that these issues are real.  Let's take a look at each of these points individually, then we can discuss what the Gophers need to do to turn things around in the second half.


Controlling the Puck


One thing that has really jumped out at me this season is the absence of what has become a Gopher Hockey staple.  That's puck control.  The Gophers under Don Lucia have been at their best when they are controlling the puck and not letting other team's have it.  Sounds like a pretty common sense approach for any team to have success, but the Gophers have been one of the best in college hockey in recent season's at controlling the puck. 

Yet, so far this season we haven't really seen the type of puck control play that Gopher fans have become accustomed to.  Teams are enjoying more offensive zone time against the Gophers, and the Gophers have at times struggled to break out of their zone and maintain offensive zone time of their own. 

While there isn't currently stat tracking for shot attempts and blocked shots (that I know of), so I can't compute the Corsi and Fenwick numbers, I did take a look at shots for and against and the shot margin of this season's team and compared it to other recent seasons.  Take a look below.

Gopher Hockey goals and shots differentials for the last 5 seasons

GPG = Goals Per Game

GAPG = Goals Against Per Game

GM = Goals Margin

SPG = Shots Per Game

SAPG = Shots Against Per Game

SM = Shots Margin

As you can see in the chart above, the Gophers haven't been too far off their traditional pace in terms of Goal differential.  They are currently scoring 3.43 goals per game while allowing 2.14 goals per game, which comes out to a 1.29 goals per game margin over their opponents.

This is right in line with their average over their last 3 seasons (in which they have won 3 Conference Championships and made 2 Frozen Fours).  Between the 2011-12 and 2013-14 seasons, they have averaged 3.52 gpg and 2.13 gapg for a scoring margin of 1.39 goals.  They are a bit down in scoring, but their scoring margin thus far hasn't been too concerning.  But that can be a bit deceiving, as we will see in a moment.

The big concern for me is that the Gophers aren't averaging as many shots on goal as they have in recent seasons.   A lot of people will tell you that shots on goal are irrelevant compared to scoring, but they can be a really strong indicator of how much a team possesses the puck (not as much as Corsi or Fenwick, but without attempted shots and blocked shots, I can't compute those).  And if you possess the puck more than your opponent, you will likely have more chances to score than you opponent.

The Gophers have averaged 29.4 shots on goal per game and have given up and average of 28.8 shots per game so far this season.  The number of shots allowed per game is about 5 more than they allowed in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons, but roughly in line with what they gave up last season (in which they surrendered an average of 29.4 shots per game).

Those extra 4 shots per game weren't as noticeable last season partly because Adam Wilcox was playing some lights out hockey in net, but also because the Gophers were themselves averaging the roughly 35 shots per game last season that they averaged in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 season.  So far this year, they are averaging roughly 5 shots less on goal per game than they have in the past 3 seasons.

So, if you take away 5 shots on goal per game and then give your opponents an additional 5 shots on goal per game, that is a swing of 10 shots per game.  You can see by the shot margin in the chart above that the Gopher's shot differential was roughly 10 shots in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 season, but has fallen to virtually even so far this year.

That means the Gophers aren't possessing the puck nearly as much as they have been in recent seasons, and a lot of that has to do with the way the team has been playing 5-on-5.  The Gophers are currently 8-0-0 when out-shooting their opponents, but only 1-4-1 when getting out-shot.  All four of their losses have come in games where they were out shot.  And in my opinion they are lucky it hasn't hurt them more.  While it hasn't burnt them in terms of scoring differential as of yet, like I said before, that can and probably will change soon if they don't start playing better hockey 5-on-5.

Scoring 5-on-5

So, if the Gophers are enjoying a scoring differential that is somewhat similar to what they have had in recent, successful seasons, why should you be concerned about their scoring?  The answer is that the Gophers have been relying far too much on a power play that is humming along at a ridiculous 34% success rate.  They haven't been scoring nearly enough goals 5-on-5 and if that power play rate comes back down to Earth some (and odds are it will), then that Goal Differential that we discussed above will come crashing down with it.  Don't believe me?  Take a look at the chart below.

The 2014-15 Gopher Hockey Power Play Dependency

PP = Power Play Percentage

PK = Penalty Kill Percentage

TOTG = Total Goals Scored

PPG = Power Play Goals Scored

5x5G = 5x5 Goals Scored

%PPG = Percentage of Total Goals Scored on Power Play

As you can see in the chart above, odds are that the Gopher's power play will not sustain the 34% conversion rate that they have enjoyed so far this season.  The power play has been terrific, and they have a great chance of eclipsing the 24.6% rate that they enjoyed a few years ago, but odds are we will see their power play rate dip down some.

That is concerning because so far this season the Gopher's have relied on their power play to score goals far more than they have in recent seasons.  The Gophers have scored a total of 48 goals so far this season.  17 of those goals have come on the power play and 31 have come while playing 5-on-5 hockey.  That means 35.4% of the goals they have scored this season have come with a man advantage.

Again, it's great that their power play is humming at the ridiculous rate that it is, but if you look at past seasons you can see that power play goals have traditionally accounted for roughly 28-29% of the team's goals.  Another strong indication that the power play likely won't be able to sustain the level it has been at, and the Gopher's scoring differential is going to come crashing down to Earth if they don't find a way to put the puck in the net 5-on-5. 

Too Dependent on Early Momentum to Win

The final thing that really jumped out at me when I was comparing the stats for this season with recent seasons is just how dependent this Gopher Hockey team is on early momentum to win hockey games.  While it's always great to jump out to an early lead, over the course of a season you are going to fall behind early in some games (either because you get a bad bounce, run into a hot opponent, etc..).  A team needs to be able to dig deep, stick to their style of play, and dig themselves out of early deficits when they occur.

While it is rare to be able to win more games when you fall behind early than when you grab an early lead, this season's Gopher Hockey team appears to be more dependent upon early momentum than Gopher teams of recent seasons, as shown in the chart below.

Gophers have been especially dependent on early momentum this season

As you can see in the chart above, the Gophers are 8-1-0 (0.889) when they score the first goal, but only 1-3-1 (0.300) when their opponent scores first.  So far this season, they have only won 1 game that they fell behind early.  While it's still early in the season, they are likely to fall behind again this season and they need to find a way to keep their composure, stick to their system, and find a way to come back. 

Last season the Gophers actually had a winning record (10-6-1) in games where they surrendered the first goal.  As I said, this is rare and doesn't need to be matched by this year's Gopher squad, but they need to be much better than they have been at dealing with adversity and falling behind early.  

You're going to surrender early leads in hockey, but good teams find a way to keep composed and come back in those games.  That falls on the on-ice leadership in my opinion, and the Gophers have some strong leaders on their squad.  Time for those guys to step up and show the way.

What the Gophers Need to Do Better

This list is a lot longer than I expected it to be at this time of the season, and I am not going to dive deep into everything at this point, but I do have a short list of things the Gophers absolutely must improve for them to have the sort of success the team and the fans expected this season.

First off, they need to start possessing the puck more.  That means getting the puck out of their zone more efficiently and sustaining a fore check more often.  Far too often this season the Gophers have gotten hemmed up in their own end as the result of an opponent's aggressive fore check.  While we do have some youth on the back end, we have enough talent and experience back their where this is absolutely unacceptable.  Our defensemen must be better at moving the puck out of our zone and up the ice.

We also need our forwards to take some pressure off our defensemen and do a better job of gaining the offensive zone and sustaining a fore check.  If you are going to dump the puck in the zone, you better go in and get it.  Teams have been able to move the puck out of their defensive zone far too easily on us at times and that absolutely must change.

In my eyes, that means that our 3rd and 4th lines must be a lot better.  While some of these guys haven't played a ton in the past few years, or are in their first year or two of college hockey, they have had enough experience this season where we need to start seeing some improvement.  If they continue to play at the possession disparity that they have been, I don't see any options for the coaching staff other than to shorten their bench a little.

The final thing I want to touch on is for the most part out of the Gophers control, but they must find a way to stay healthy from here on out.  We don't have nearly the depth that I thought we would coming into this season as some guys just haven't taken the steps that I thought they would yet.  If we lose some of our top line forwards for an extended period, we might be in serious trouble.

Anyways, that is my analysis of where the Gophers are at right now.  Still plenty of hockey left to be played and plenty of opportunity for guys to take a step in their development.  This team has more than enough talent to make a deep run in the post season, but in order to do that some guys are going to have to take a long look in the mirror and ask themselves if they are giving it everything they have.  I can't imagine that guys came back this year to have the type of season they have been having.